The US presidential elections have always been a major economic and geopolitical event with a massive impact on the American economy and the world.

The election of the right president can make or break a market, that’s why the elections are crucial for crypto. Many believe that the election of Donald Trump, the candidate from the Republican party, will mark the start of a bull run for crypto and other financial instruments. That’s not only because of his stance on Web3 regulation and Bitcoin, but also because of its macroeconomics and geopolitical decisions. 

In this article, we’ll give you a comprehensive review of the candidate’s political stances and five different ways the 2024 US elections could impact the crypto world. Enjoy! 

Where Do Trump and Harris Stand on Crypto? 

We have two opposite candidates in the run for the presidency. Let’s see where they stand on crypto and regulations:

Donald Trump

By 2024, Trump changed his approach, aiming to capture the support of crypto enthusiasts and significant donors in the industry. At the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Trump announced his ambition to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the planet” and a global Bitcoin superpower. He even introduced policies aimed at promoting the cryptocurrency sector, including a government Bitcoin stockpile and the formation of a Bitcoin and crypto presidential advisory council. Trump’s campaign now accepts Bitcoin donations, and he has embraced digital assets by launching NFT trading cards that depict him in various settings, including as a superhero with Bitcoin. His vice-presidential running mate, Senator J.D. Vance, is also a strong supporter of cryptocurrency.

Moreover, as of September 17, Donald Trump has officially launched his new crypto project, World Liberty Financial, just one day after surviving a second assassination attempt. The project aims to provide borrowing and lending services for cryptos on the Ethereum blockchain.

During a live interview with Rug Radio, Trump’s team revealed new details about World Liberty Financial. They emphasized that the platform would be more “user-friendly” and accessible than other, more technical DeFi applications. Unlike typical DeFi projects, World Liberty Financial will be powered by a non-transferable governance token called WLFI, meaning users won’t be able to trade it. While the full details of Trump’s project remain unclear, World Liberty Financial promises to simplify DeFi services and make them more accessible to the broader public.

Trump has criticized the idea of a U.S. CBDC, calling it a “threat to freedom.” He has voiced opposition to the Federal Reserve creating such a currency, aligning himself with crypto advocates who oppose the potential government control that a CBDC might bring. His campaign’s pro-crypto stance has drawn attention from figures in the industry, and Trump appears to have been influenced by former Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, known for his support of digital assets. Trump also promised to reduce taxes, particularly lowering the capital gains tax, which would directly impact cryptocurrency investors.

Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee and current Vice President, has not yet taken a definitive public stance on cryptocurrency. 

However, her position may align with the approach taken by the Biden administration, which has seen increased legal engagement with the crypto sector. Under President Biden, the crypto sector has been under continuous pressure from every legal institution in the United States, starting from the SEC and ending with the DoJ. After the FTX collapse, the SEC hit the crypto industry with a massive wave of lawsuits, accusing top-notch crypto companies of bypassing fundamental investor protections. The two biggest ones were registered against Coinbase and Binance. 

The attacks on crypto continued as the SEC tried to block the appearance of a Bitcoin ETF. However, the decision was overruled by a federal judge in 2023, and now we have Bitcoin AND Ethereum ETFs around.  Later that year, in September, the White House released a more detailed framework to guide the responsible development of crypto. It sought to unify the government’s approach to managing crypto risks and maximizing its potential benefits. By many, this framework was seen as a turning point in the Democrats’ relationship with crypto. 

Now, despite the lack of an official stance, Harris’ background in California’s tech industry and recent meetings with crypto leaders suggest she might adopt a moderate approach.  Notably, she was publicly supported by JP Thieriot, a board member of the crypto platform Uphold, and has engaged with crypto Democrats through events like the “townhall” hosted by Crypto4Harris, a group that advocates for her within the industry.

Crypto Funds the US Politics 

Cryptocurrency’s influence in U.S. politics has surged, marked by a staggering 1386% increase in lobbying expenditure over the last seven years. Since 2017, the crypto sector has funnelled vast amounts of money into political campaigns. Nearly 60% of this total spending, or $78.94 million out of $131.91 million, took place in just the past two years, 2022 and 2023. In 2023, Apollo Global Management emerged as the top spender in crypto lobbying, contributing $7.56 million. Managed Funds Association followed with $4.11 million, while Coinbase spent $2.86 million. Coinbase’s lobbying expenditure has seen a dramatic 3475% increase since 2017, when it spent just $80,000. Over 74% of Coinbase’s total lobbying spend occurred in 2022 and 2023.

Binance.us also experienced a significant rise in lobbying, with an increase of 656.25% from $160,000 in 2021 to $1.215 million in 2023. Ripple saw a similarly impressive surge, with lobbying expenses jumping by 1780% from $50,000 in 2017 to $940,000 in 2023. This rapid growth underscores the crypto industry’s increasing efforts to shape regulation and policy, particularly as it seeks to influence the 2024 elections. Despite the industry’s push, crypto remains a niche interest, with only 7% of Americans using or holding digital currency in 2023.

Five Ways the 2024 Election Will Affect the Crypto Market

Here are the five most probable ways that the 2024 election will affect the cryptocurrency market: 

Influence of Memes and Popular Culture

The 2024 election has been marked by a surge in meme culture, particularly around former President Donald Trump. With influential figures like Elon Musk supporting Trump, there has been an increase in the popularity of meme coins. This trend is reminiscent of past spikes in interest, where major events led to a broader awareness and investment in various cryptocurrencies. 

The chaotic nature of the current election, with its unexpected twists and turns, provides ample fodder for memes, further driving interest in meme coins. This phenomenon not only entertains but also serves as a gateway for new investors exploring the crypto space.

Candidates’ Stances on Cryptocurrency

The candidates’ positions on cryptocurrency regulation are significant. Trump, who was previously critical of digital assets, has become a vocal supporter, advocating for minimal regulation and even proposing a National Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. 

This stance is likely to appeal to pro-crypto voters and investors. In contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris’s position is less clear. While the Biden administration has been perceived as tough on crypto, recent signals from Harris’s camp suggest a potential shift towards a more business-friendly approach. The public perception of Harris as anti-crypto could lead to market volatility, depending on her campaign’s messaging and actions.

Future Regulation of Cryptocurrency

The election could have lasting implications for the regulation of cryptocurrencies in the U.S. Currently, the Republican Party, including Trump, tends to favour less regulation, promoting a more laissez-faire approach. 

This contrasts with the Democratic Party’s push for stronger oversight, particularly in the wake of incidents like the FTX collapse. However, the crypto industry has strategically donated to both parties, ensuring some level of support regardless of the election outcome. The lack of clear polarization among voters on this issue suggests that major regulatory changes may not be a central campaign focus, though behind-the-scenes lobbying remains influential.

Limited Impact on Voter Decisions

Despite the increasing prominence of cryptocurrency in public discourse, it remains a relatively minor issue for most voters. Key concerns such as inflation, healthcare, and immigration dominate the political landscape. As a result, politicians may not feel pressured to take definitive stances on crypto regulation. 

This allows for flexibility in policy positions, with the potential for crypto-friendly measures to gain traction without significant electoral repercussions. The industry’s influence is likely to be felt more through lobbying efforts than direct voter engagement.

Rising Bitcoin Prices

The price of Bitcoin is notably higher than in previous election cycles, reflecting both the maturation of the cryptocurrency market and increased public interest. This trend underscores the growing importance of crypto assets in the financial portfolios of many voters. 

As Bitcoin remains the most well-known and widely held cryptocurrency, its performance can significantly impact public perception and confidence in the crypto market. Moreover, U.S. policies on cryptocurrency can have global repercussions, influencing international markets and regulatory approaches.

Conclusion

In the 2024 election, cryptocurrency has become a key issue. Both major parties are paying close attention to the large sums of money flowing into campaigns from crypto supporters. Donald Trump has embraced the crypto community with promises of a more favorable regulatory environment. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris and the Democrats are gradually addressing the topic but lag behind in enthusiasm.

Crypto backers are heavily funding campaigns, hoping to sway the regulatory landscape in their favor. This influx of money is influencing not only the presidential race but also down-ballot contests, making it a critical issue in many campaigns. With so much at stake, the debate over crypto regulation will likely intensify as the election nears.